| Summary: | We present predictions of Arctic vegetation for 2050 based on a combination of climate models (namely, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MRI-ESM2-0), emission scenarios (names, SSP126 and SSP585) and tree dispersal rate scenarios (unrestricted, 20km and 5km) based on the methods of Pearson et al. (2013) and the new raster version of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM) (Raynolds et al. 2019). We additionally present a dataset summarising total areas for each vegetation type in the CAVM and the forecasted models based on the computation of zonal histograms in ArcGIS (zonal_histogram_results.csv), for the total Arctic as well as only within protected areas, defined by the Map of Arctic Protected Areas (CAFF and PAME 2017). We also present a potential map of refugia for what we deem the realistic model (IPSL, SSP585, 20 km tree dispersal) as a raster file. Refugia were identified as regions where the vegetation remained the same between the CAVM and the predictions. Additionally, we present a map of model agreement, showing the degree to which other models agree with the vegetation classification for our refugia. All predictions named according to the tree dispersal rate, climate model, and emissions scenario, preceded by the term "pred". For example: "pred_unres_mri_585" represents the unrestricted tree dispersal, MRI-ESM-0 climate model, and SSP585 scenario-based prediction. The MRI-ESM-0 x SSP585 combination had gaps in data which results in a lack of predictions in some areas; this affects 3 models. Further details and all code associated with these datasets are found here . We thank University of Zurich's URPP GCB for the funding which made this project possible.
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