| Summary: | Self-replicating gene drives that can spread deleterious alleles through animal populations have been promoted as a much needed but controversial 'silver bullet' for controlling invasive alien species. Homing-based drives comprise an endonuclease and a guide RNA that are replicated during meiosis via homologous recombination. However, their efficacy for controlling wild populations is threatened by inherent polymorphic resistance and the creation of resistance alleles via non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) mediated DNA repair. We used stochastic individual-based models to identify realistic gene-drive strategies capable of eradicating vertebrate pest populations (mice, rats and rabbits) on islands. One popular strategy, a sex-reversing drive that converts heterozygous females into sterile males, failed to spread and required the ongoing deployment of gene-drive carriers to achieve eradication. Multiplexed guide RNAs could overcome inherent polymorphic resistance and were required for eradication success even when the probability of NHEJ was low. Strategies causing homozygotic embryonic non-viability or homozygotic female sterility produced high probabilities of eradication and were robust to NHEJ-mediated deletion of DNA sequence between multiplexed endonuclease recognition sites. The latter two strategies also purged the gene drive when eradication failed, therefore posing lower long-term risk should animals escape beyond target islands. Multiplexing guide RNAs will be necessary if this technology is to be useful for insular extirpation attempts; however, precise knowledge of homing rates will be required to design low-risk gene drives with high probabilities of eradication success. R code for simulating pest populations inoculated with gene-drive carriers R code for: (1) a function for simulating pest population dynamics assuming different gene-drive strategies and species' demographies; (2) running the function for different parameter inputs and plotting the results gene_drive_base.R
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