Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2019. The EU Emissions Trading System in numbers.

• Main Authors: Healy, Sean, Graichen, Verena, Graichen, Jakob, Nissen, Christian, Gores, Sabine, Siemons, Anne
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: EU ETS; emission trading; greenhouse gas emissions; emission allowances; Norway; Iceland
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/3762638; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3762638

This report provides an analysis of past, present and future emission trends under the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS). It also analyses the balance between supply and demand of allowances in the market. The report is based on the data and information available from the European Commission and Member States as of June 2019. Data on verified emissions and compliance by operators under the EU ETS for the years up until 2018 are based on an extract of the EU Transaction Log from 1st July 2019. Information from EU Member States, Iceland and Norway is based on their projections of EU ETS emissions until 2030, as reported in 2019 under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation. Main findings In 2018, the total number of allowances in circulation was the same as in 2017. If the net demand for allowances from aviation would also be taken into account then the number of allowances available to operators was lower in 2018 compared to the previous year. Power generation continues to drive emission reductions in the EU ETS. Emission trends for industrial installations have been more variable, reflecting the economic developments observed in Europe over the last three trading periods. Aviation emissions continue to grow year on year. Member States project that, with the current measures in place, their EU ETS emissions will continue to decrease, albeit at a slower rate than historically. The overall projected reduction is not yet in line with EU objectives for emission reductions by 2030.