Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill
Plain Language Summary: There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study su...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://zenodo.org/record/3669921 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:3669921 2023-05-15T14:39:29+02:00 Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Pablo Ortega Lauriane Batté Doug Smith Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere Virginie Guemas François Massonnet Valentina Sicardi Verónica Torralba Etienne Tourigny Francisco Doblas-Reyes 2020-02-14 https://zenodo.org/record/3669921 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641727/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727890/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727862/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/748750/ https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/record/3669921 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 oai:zenodo.org:3669921 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Seasonal predictions Barents-Kara sea ice Arctic mid-latitude teleconnections info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2020 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 2023-03-10T21:44:39Z Plain Language Summary: There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study suggest that autumnal Arctic sea ice state may have an important impact on winter climate forecast capacity in parts of Eurasia. We further show that large ensembles of simulations can be further exploited, by identifying the members with a better representation of certain processes, in this case the teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the atmospheric circulation, to enhance the prediction skill of temperature and precipitation over the continents. Exploring this approach for other regions and seasons can provide a possible pathway towards more human-relevant seasonal climate predictions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice Zenodo Arctic Kara Sea Geophysical Research Letters 47 5 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Zenodo |
op_collection_id |
ftzenodo |
language |
English |
topic |
Seasonal predictions Barents-Kara sea ice Arctic mid-latitude teleconnections |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal predictions Barents-Kara sea ice Arctic mid-latitude teleconnections Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Pablo Ortega Lauriane Batté Doug Smith Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere Virginie Guemas François Massonnet Valentina Sicardi Verónica Torralba Etienne Tourigny Francisco Doblas-Reyes Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
topic_facet |
Seasonal predictions Barents-Kara sea ice Arctic mid-latitude teleconnections |
description |
Plain Language Summary: There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study suggest that autumnal Arctic sea ice state may have an important impact on winter climate forecast capacity in parts of Eurasia. We further show that large ensembles of simulations can be further exploited, by identifying the members with a better representation of certain processes, in this case the teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the atmospheric circulation, to enhance the prediction skill of temperature and precipitation over the continents. Exploring this approach for other regions and seasons can provide a possible pathway towards more human-relevant seasonal climate predictions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Pablo Ortega Lauriane Batté Doug Smith Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere Virginie Guemas François Massonnet Valentina Sicardi Verónica Torralba Etienne Tourigny Francisco Doblas-Reyes |
author_facet |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Pablo Ortega Lauriane Batté Doug Smith Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere Virginie Guemas François Massonnet Valentina Sicardi Verónica Torralba Etienne Tourigny Francisco Doblas-Reyes |
author_sort |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo |
title |
Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_short |
Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_full |
Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_fullStr |
Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_full_unstemmed |
Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_sort |
link between autumnal arctic sea ice and northern hemisphere winter forecast skill |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/3669921 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/641727/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727890/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727862/ info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/748750/ https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/record/3669921 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 oai:zenodo.org:3669921 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
5 |
_version_ |
1766311483499610112 |