Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill

Plain Language Summary: There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study su...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo, Pablo Ortega, Lauriane Batté, Doug Smith, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, Virginie Guemas, François Massonnet, Valentina Sicardi, Verónica Torralba, Etienne Tourigny, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Seasonal predictions
Barents-Kara sea ice
Arctic
mid-latitude
teleconnections
Kara Sea
Sea ice
Online Access:https://zenodo.org/record/3669921
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753
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Summary:Plain Language Summary: There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study suggest that autumnal Arctic sea ice state may have an important impact on winter climate forecast capacity in parts of Eurasia. We further show that large ensembles of simulations can be further exploited, by identifying the members with a better representation of certain processes, in this case the teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the atmospheric circulation, to enhance the prediction skill of temperature and precipitation over the continents. Exploring this approach for other regions and seasons can provide a possible pathway towards more human-relevant seasonal climate predictions.

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