Global analysis of emperor penguin populations

• Main Authors: LaRue, Michelle, Iles, David, Labrousse, Sara, Fretwell, Peter, Ortega, David, Devane, Eileen, Horstmann, Isabella, Viollat, Lise, Foster-Dyer, Rose, Le Bohec, Céline, Zitterbart, Daniel, Houstin, Aymeric, Richter, Sebastian, Winterl, Alexander, Wienecke, Barbara, Salas, Leo, Nixon, Monique, Barbraud, Christophe, Kooyman, Gerald, Ponganis, Paul, Ainley, David, Trathan, Phil, Jenouvrier, Stéphanie
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2024
• Subjects: Emperor penguin; Aptenodytes forsteri; Bayesian method; high-resolution satellite imagery; Population modeling; Antarctic; Southern Ocean; Antarc*; Emperor penguins
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10573925

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys, and using Bayesian modeling we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that the global population of adult emperor penguins declined between 2009 and 2018, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines likely occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population up-tick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Funding provided by: National Science Foundation Crossref Funder Registry ID: https://ror.org/021nxhr62 Award Number: 1748898 Funding provided by: National Science Foundation Crossref Funder Registry ID: https://ror.org/021nxhr62 Award Number: 1744794 Funding provided by: National Science Foundation Crossref Funder Registry ID: https://ror.org/021nxhr62 Award Number: 2046437 Funding provided by: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Crossref Funder Registry ID: https://ror.org/027ka1x80 Award Number: 80NSSC20K1289 Funding provided by: World Wide Fund for Nature Crossref Funder Registry ID: https://ror.org/052y0z870 Award Number: GB095701 Funding provided by: Deutsche ...