| Summary: | © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 13 (2018): e0191509, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0191509. Wintertime convective mixing plays a pivotal role in the sub-polar North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms by favoring phytoplankton survival in the competition between light-dependent production and losses due to grazing and gravitational settling. We use satellite and ocean reanalyses to show that the area-averaged maximum winter mixed layer depth is positively correlated with April chlorophyll concentration in the northern Labrador Sea. A simple theoretical framework is developed to understand the relative roles of winter/spring convection and gravitational sedimentation in spring blooms in this region. Combining climate model simulations that project a weakening of wintertime Labrador Sea convection from Arctic sea ice melt with our framework suggests a potentially significant reduction in the initial fall phytoplankton population that survive the winter to seed the region’s spring bloom by the end of the 21st century. KB, LB, PJR and LRL were supported by the Office of Science (BER), U. S. Department of Energy as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modelling (RGCM) Program. SCD acknowledges support from NASA Award NNX15AE65G North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES).
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