Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Fay, Remi, Hamel, Sandra, van de Pol, Martijn, Gaillard, Jean-Michel, Yoccoz, Nigel G., Acker, Paul, Authier, Matthieu, Larue, Benjamin, Le Coeur, Christie, Macdonald, Kaitlin R., Nicol-Harper, Alex, Barbraud, Christophe, Bonenfant, Christophe, Van Vuren, Dirk H., Cam, Emmanuelle, Delord, Karine, Gamelon, Marlène, Moiron, Maria, Pelletier, Fanie, Rotella, Jay J., Teplitsky, Celine, Visser, Marcel E., Wells, Caitlin P., Wheelwright, Nathaniel T., Jenouvrier, Stephanie, Saether, Bernt-Erik
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Wiley 2022
• Subjects: capture-recapture; demographic correlation; demography; environmental stochasticity; slow-fast continuum; stochastic population dynamics; temporal covariation; Harper; Visser; Weddell; Weddell Seals
• Online Access: https://hdl.handle.net/1912/29299

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Fay, R., Hamel, S., van de Pol, M., Gaillard, J.-M., Yoccoz, N. G., Acker, P., Authier, M., Larue, B., Le Coeur, C., Macdonald, K. R., Nicol-Harper, A., Barbraud, C., Bonenfant, C., Van Vuren, D. H., Cam, E., Delord, K., Gamelon, M., Moiron, M., Pelletier, F., Rotella, J., Teplitsky, C., Visser, M. E., Wells, C. P., Wheelwright, N. T., Jenouvrier, S., & Saether, B.-E. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecology Letters, 25(7), (2022): 1640-1654, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14026. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species. This project was funded by the CNRS, including a long-term support by the OSU-OREME. Data collection for Weddell seals was supported by the National Science Foundation, Division of Polar Programs under grant number ...