Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Storm Surge and Wave Impacts with Projected Sea Level Rise within the Salish Sea
Sea level rise (SLR) in the Salish Sea, a large inland waterway shared between Canada and the United States, is expected to be 0.3 to 1.8 m by the year 2100. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, global ice sheet loss, and other controls such as vertical land movement all contribute to this range...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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Western CEDAR
2019
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| Online Access: | https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet/901 https://cedar.wwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1931&context=wwuet |
| Summary: | Sea level rise (SLR) in the Salish Sea, a large inland waterway shared between Canada and the United States, is expected to be 0.3 to 1.8 m by the year 2100. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, global ice sheet loss, and other controls such as vertical land movement all contribute to this range. Valuable property, infrastructure, and critical habitats for shellfish and threatened salmon populations are at risk to coastal changes associated with SLR. Additionally, development in Washington State is expected to accelerate through the end of the 21st century adding extra pressure on protecting ecosystems and people from natural hazards along the coast. Global climate models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, yet little is known about the impacts of climate change on the local wave climate. Understanding the dynamic interactions that SLR and climate change will have on the wave climate and coastal systems within the Salish Sea is vital for protecting these resources and planning for the future. In support of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project and the United States Geological Survey Coastal Change Impacts Project, I modeled historic and potential future waves in the Salish Sea to evaluate the extent that wave energy reaching the shore may change with 0.3, 0.6, and 0.91 m of SLR. I also assessed potential changes in future wind conditions that drive wave generation projected by the publicly available MACA (Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs) downscaled NOAA GFDL-ESM2M (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth Systems Model) GCM. Lastly, I modeled wave runup to assess potential flood and wave impacts along the shore to the year 2100 as part of a case study in support of the City of Tacoma’s climate adaptation planning for parks, sensitive habitats and significant commercial development along Ruston Way. This project generated the first regional wave model and historical hindcast within the Salish Sea to define the recurrence frequency of a range of extreme events ... |
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