Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generali...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ocean Science
Main Authors: Brunnabend, S.-E., Dijkstra, H. A., Kliphuis, M. A., Bal, H. E., Seinstra, F., van Werkhoven, B.J.C., Maassen, J., van Meersbergen, M.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2017
Subjects:
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/79188fde-9b3b-4248-8e1a-96219a4473a3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-47-2017
http://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/79188fde-9b3b-4248-8e1a-96219a4473a3
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http://www.ocean-sci.net/13/47/2017/
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Summary:An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000–2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000–2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

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