Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate Dynamics
Main Authors: van Westen, René M., Dijkstra, Henk A., Bloemendaal, Nadia
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2023
Subjects:
AMOC weakening
Climate change
High-resolution modelling
Tropical cyclones
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/6d5ecd1a-c7ab-4f3a-b15a-0a627d6880f0
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/6d5ecd1a-c7ab-4f3a-b15a-0a627d6880f0
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146687093&partnerID=8YFLogxK
http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85146687093&partnerID=8YFLogxK
Description
Summary:Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (- 45 %) in the North Atlantic but increases (+ 15 %) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

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