| Summary: | The recent quantification of the reservoir of carbon held in permafrost soils has rekindled the concern that the terrestrial biosphere will transition from a carbon sink to a carbon source during the 21st century. This dissertation is a compilation of four modelling studies that investigate the permafrost carbon feedback, its consequences for the projected future behaviour of the carbon cycle, and the origins of the proportionally between cumulative CO$_2$ emissions and near surface temperature change. The dissertation is centred around five questions: 1) what is the strength and timing of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change? 2) If anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease, will atmospheric CO2 concentration continue to increase? 3) Can climate warming be reversed using artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal? 4) What are the underlying physical mechanisms that explain the existence in Earth system models of the proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and mean global near surface temperature change? And 5) can strong terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, such as the permafrost carbon feedback, disrupt this proportionality? By investigating the these questions using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and analytical mathematics the following conclusions are drawn: 1) The permafrost carbon feedback to climate change is simulated to have a strength of 0.25 C (0.1 to 0.75)C by the year 2100 CE independent of emission pathway followed in the 21st century. This range is contingent on the size of the permafrost carbon pool and the simulated model climate sensitivity. 2) If CO2 emissions were to suddenly cease, the UVic ESCM suggests that whether or not CO2 would continue to build up in the atmosphere is contingent on climate sensitivity and the concentration of non-CO2 greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. For a given model climate sensitivity there is a threshold value of radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gasses above which CO2 will continue to build up in the ...
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