Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Hochet, Antoine, Dodet, Guillaume, Sévellec, Florian, Bouin, Marie‐noëlle, Patra, Anindita, Ardhuin, Fabrice
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CNRS-Region Bretagne Grant (Stratégie d’Attractivité Durable) CT N°LS 215643—REGION BRETAGNE (20006778).
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04115904; https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document; https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348

International audience Satellite observations of significant wave height (Hs) have recently reached 30 years of continuous record. Is this length sufficient to detect the effect of anthropogenically forced climate change on wave height trends? Wave height decadal variability is influenced by a combination of internal variability and forced variability caused by both anthropogenic and natural forcing. Using a statistical model to derive Hs from sea level pressure field and exploiting ERA-5 reanalysis data as well as 80 members of the Community Earth System Model v2 large ensemble, we show that, over the North Atlantic (NA), altimetry-based Hs trends are mostly caused by internal variability. This suggests that Hs changes computed over the satellite era are not yet controlled by anthropogenic climate change. Starting from 1993, the date of emergence, defined as the date when the forced signal becomes dominant over the internal variability, is later than 2050 for Hs in the NA.