Imitation forecast of railway system operation in a macroregion

The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia - the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and g...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning
Main Authors: Dobrodey, V. V., Gitelman, L. D., Kozhevnikov, M. V., Matushkina, N. A.
Format: Review
Language:English
Published: WITPress 2018
Subjects:
AGGREGATED CARGO FLOWS
BALANCE
CARGO CORRESPONDENCE
DYNAMICS
EFFICIENCY
FORECAST
MODEL
REGION
RESILIENCE
TERRITORIAL COMPLEX
UNCERTAINTY
BALANCING
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS
ECONOMICS
FORECASTING
GAS INDUSTRY
MODELS
OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT
RAILROADS
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION
CARGO
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
EFFICIENCY MEASUREMENT
FORECASTING METHOD
RAILWAY TRANSPORT
STRATEGIC APPROACH
TERRITORIALITY
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
UNCERTAINTY ROLE
UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT
KHANTY-MANSI
NENETS
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
TYUMEN
khanty
khanty-mansi
nenets
Mansi
Online Access:http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/75306
http://www.witpress.com/Secure/ejournals/papers/SDP130507f.pdf
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=8YFLogxK&scp=85049338424
https://doi.org/10.2495/SDP-V13-N5-805-817
Description
Summary:The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia - the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and generate large volumes of exports and inter-regional cargo flows. The region covers an expansive territory and is characterized by harsh weather, an extreme environment, and uneven development of the transportation network. Research into the transportation issues of economic development in such areas presents a challenging task because the region is unique, statistical data are incomplete and classified; there is a hierarchy of businesses and organizations operating in the region that have their own goals and objectives and compete against its other; the region is plagued with social and environmental problems and a lack of administrative integration between individual districts. Using rigorous mathematical tools for assessing transportation infrastructure projects under such conditions is only limited to finding solutions to stand-alone problems and scenario comparison. A model of the applied system that is outlined in the article makes it possible to analyze specific projects of regional railway system development that take into account strategic priorities and goals of the state, social and economic development problems experienced by the neighboring regions, the oil and gas sector and major employers, as well as corporate goals of the sustainable development of railway companies. The application of the model over an extended period of time showed that the analysis of the structure of cargo flows and customers bound to junctions of the transportation network makes it possible to suggest what aspects of the railway infrastructure should be reorganized in line with the development dynamics of economic entities that consume transportation services. The study is built upon a number of projects that were implemented in ...

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