Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Richardson, David S., Cloke, Hannah L., Pappenberger, Florian
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära 2020
• Subjects: ensemble; consistency; jumpiness; uncertainty; inconsistency; predictability; Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning; Flop; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204; https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934

An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first s...