Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first s...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Richardson, David S., Cloke, Hannah L., Pappenberger, Florian
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära 2020
Subjects:
ensemble
consistency
jumpiness
uncertainty
inconsistency
predictability
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
Flop
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934
Description
Summary:An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to 2 weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space.

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