Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts
An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first s...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära
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Online Access: | http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 |
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ftuppsalauniv:oai:DiVA.org:uu-420204 2023-05-15T17:32:45+02:00 Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian 2020 application/pdf http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 eng eng Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England.;Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England. Univ Reading, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England.;Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England. AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION Geophysical Research Letters, 0094-8276, 2020, 47:11, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204 doi:10.1029/2020GL087934 ISI:000543387400015 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ensemble consistency jumpiness uncertainty inconsistency predictability Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Article in journal info:eu-repo/semantics/article text 2020 ftuppsalauniv https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 2023-02-23T21:53:27Z An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to 2 weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) Flop ENVELOPE(-56.753,-56.753,-61.028,-61.028) Geophysical Research Letters 47 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Uppsala University: Publications (DiVA) |
op_collection_id |
ftuppsalauniv |
language |
English |
topic |
ensemble consistency jumpiness uncertainty inconsistency predictability Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
spellingShingle |
ensemble consistency jumpiness uncertainty inconsistency predictability Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
topic_facet |
ensemble consistency jumpiness uncertainty inconsistency predictability Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning |
description |
An expected benefit of ensemble forecasts is that a sequence of consecutive forecasts valid for the same time will be more consistent than an equivalent sequence of individual forecasts. Inconsistent (jumpy) forecasts can cause users to lose confidence in the forecasting system. We present a first systematic, objective evaluation of the consistency of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble using a measure of forecast divergence that takes account of the full ensemble distribution. Focusing on forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European Blocking regimes up to 2 weeks ahead, we identify occasional large inconsistency between successive runs, with the largest jumps tending to occur at 7-9 days lead. However, care is needed in the interpretation of ensemble jumpiness. An apparent clear flip-flop in a single index may hide a more complex predictability issue which may be better understood by examining the ensemble evolution in phase space. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian |
author_facet |
Richardson, David S. Cloke, Hannah L. Pappenberger, Florian |
author_sort |
Richardson, David S. |
title |
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
title_short |
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
title_full |
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts |
title_sort |
evaluation of the consistency of ecmwf ensemble forecasts |
publisher |
Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-56.753,-56.753,-61.028,-61.028) |
geographic |
Flop |
geographic_facet |
Flop |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters, 0094-8276, 2020, 47:11, http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-420204 doi:10.1029/2020GL087934 ISI:000543387400015 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1766131010120974336 |