Modeling strategies for volcanic ash dispersal and management of impacts on civil aviation

• Main Author: Scaini, Chiara
• Other Authors: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Institut Universitari de Recerca en Ciència i Tecnologies de la Sostenibilitat, Folch Duran, Arnau
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya 2015
• Subjects: Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible; Eyjafjallajokull; Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2117/95673; http://hdl.handle.net/10803/288372; https://doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-95673

Tesi per compendi de publicacions. La consulta íntegra de la tesi, inclosos els articles no comunicats públicament per drets d'autor, es pot realitzar prèvia petició a l'Arxiu de la UPC During April-May 2010, the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland caused the larger breakdown of civil aviation after World War II. Although the eruption was weak in intensity, the dispersal of volcanic ash clouds over northern and central Europe resulted in more than 100.000 flights canceled and caused over USD 1.7 billion economical losses. This event and its unexpected effects raised many questions amongst the affected communities and stakeholders. How could volcanic eruptions cause severe disruptions at continental scales? Were these impacts totally unexpected? What could have been done to improve preparedness of aviation sector and reduce societal impacts of disruptions? The harmful effects of volcanic ash on aircraft's components have long been recognized, and volcanic ash dispersal patterns can be forecasted thanks to sophisticated numerical models. However, the procedures to be implemented in case of ash-contaminated airspace where applied only in few occasions, due to the relatively low frequency of explosive eruptions events. The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull crisis revealed a low preparedness of society to direct and indirect impacts of volcanic eruptions, and pointed out some flaws to be improved for mitigating impacts of explosive eruptions on aviation operations. The issues pointed out by the 2010 crisis are the starting point of this PhD research, which aims at offering new methods for improving aviation management during explosive volcanic eruptions. This manuscript describes the novel contributions developed during a 4-year period of research. The adoption of new techniques is proposed in order to improve current tephra dispersal modeling strategies and produce results focused on aviation needs. This research develops the first methodology to assess vulnerability of air traffic system and its elements to ...