Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast data sets an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Schuhen, Nina, Schaller, Nathalie, Bloomfield, Hannah C., Brayshaw, David J., Lledó, Llorenç, Cionni, Irene, Sillmann, Jana
Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2022
Subjects:
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
Teleconnection patterns (Climatology)
Weather forecasting
Europe
Teleconnection
Seasonal Hindcasts
Extreme Winter Temperatures
Simulació per ordinador
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2117/368255
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360
Description
Summary:European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. The authors have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 776787 (S2S4E). The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped us to improve and clarify this manuscript. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version)

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