Future Climate Change under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

Abstract This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improv...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Main Authors: Nazarenko, Larissa S., Tausnev, Nick, Russell, Gary L., Rind, David, Miller, Ron L., Pérez García-Pando, Carlos
Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley Open Access 2022
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Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2117/364830
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002871
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Summary:Abstract This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: a non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE) and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0ºC and 2.9ºC for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5ºC to 5.2ºC relative to 1850-1880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6-5.2ºC at 2100. Due to about 15\% larger effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and stronger transient climate response (TCR) in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable RCP scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern ...