Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/349808 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
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ftupcatalunyair:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/349808 2024-09-15T17:50:59+00:00 Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Im, Ulas Tsigaridis, Kostas Faluvegi, Gregory Langen, Peter L. French, Joshua P. Mahmood, Rashed Thomas, Manu A. Salzen, Knut von Thomas, Daniel C. Whaley, Cynthia H. Klimont, Zbigniew Skov, Henrik Brandt, Jørgen Barcelona Supercomputing Center 2021 26 p. application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2117/349808 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 eng eng European Geosciences Union https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/10413/2021/acp-21-10413-2021-supplement.pdf Im, U. [et al.]. Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics", 2021, vol. 21, núm. 13, p. 10413-10438. 1680-7324 1680-7316 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/349808 doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 Attribution 3.0 Spain Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Atmospheric aerosol Arctic aerosol Simulations GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Warming Canvis climàtics Article 2021 ftupcatalunyair https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 2024-07-25T11:14:45Z The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60∘ N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39±0.01 W m−2, which is −0.08 W m−2 larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W m−2), of which −0.24±0.01 W m−2 was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W m−2 for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W m−2 larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W m−2. The scenarios with little to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic black carbon Climate change Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 13 10413 10438 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech: UPCommons - Global access to UPC knowledge |
op_collection_id |
ftupcatalunyair |
language |
English |
topic |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Atmospheric aerosol Arctic aerosol Simulations GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Warming Canvis climàtics |
spellingShingle |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Atmospheric aerosol Arctic aerosol Simulations GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Warming Canvis climàtics Im, Ulas Tsigaridis, Kostas Faluvegi, Gregory Langen, Peter L. French, Joshua P. Mahmood, Rashed Thomas, Manu A. Salzen, Knut von Thomas, Daniel C. Whaley, Cynthia H. Klimont, Zbigniew Skov, Henrik Brandt, Jørgen Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
topic_facet |
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Atmospheric aerosol Arctic aerosol Simulations GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Warming Canvis climàtics |
description |
The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60∘ N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39±0.01 W m−2, which is −0.08 W m−2 larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W m−2), of which −0.24±0.01 W m−2 was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W m−2 for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W m−2 larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W m−2. The scenarios with little to ... |
author2 |
Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Im, Ulas Tsigaridis, Kostas Faluvegi, Gregory Langen, Peter L. French, Joshua P. Mahmood, Rashed Thomas, Manu A. Salzen, Knut von Thomas, Daniel C. Whaley, Cynthia H. Klimont, Zbigniew Skov, Henrik Brandt, Jørgen |
author_facet |
Im, Ulas Tsigaridis, Kostas Faluvegi, Gregory Langen, Peter L. French, Joshua P. Mahmood, Rashed Thomas, Manu A. Salzen, Knut von Thomas, Daniel C. Whaley, Cynthia H. Klimont, Zbigniew Skov, Henrik Brandt, Jørgen |
author_sort |
Im, Ulas |
title |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_short |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_full |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_fullStr |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_sort |
present and future aerosol impacts on arctic climate change in the giss-e2.1 earth system model |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/349808 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
genre |
Arctic black carbon Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic black carbon Climate change |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/10413/2021/acp-21-10413-2021-supplement.pdf Im, U. [et al.]. Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics", 2021, vol. 21, núm. 13, p. 10413-10438. 1680-7324 1680-7316 http://hdl.handle.net/2117/349808 doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Spain Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
13 |
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10413 |
op_container_end_page |
10438 |
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1810292797070114816 |