The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002)

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Lonergan, M, Harwood, J
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2003
• Subjects: epidemiology; epizootiology; extinction risk; mathematical model; mortality rates; phocine distemper virus; population dynamics; AGE-STRUCTURED POPULATIONS; VITULINA; DYNAMICS; EUROPE; DEATHS; Harding; harbour seal; Phoca vitulina
• Online Access: https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html; https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x; http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0141818220&partnerID=8YFLogxK

In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (< 1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.