The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al.(2002)
In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively hig...
| Published in: | Ecology Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2003
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://risweb.st-andrews.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutput/the-potential-effects-of-repeated-outbreaks-of-phocine-distemper-among-harbour-seals-a-response-to-harding-et-al2002(d49d309e-b30a-4006-b711-317b98d9039e).html https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0141818220&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
| Summary: | In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. ( 2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long-term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (< 1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions. |
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