| Summary: | Alaska exports to Japan decreased dramatically during the 1990’s. This decline was caused by a variety of factors including the Japanese recession, a reduced Alaska timber supply, exchange rates, a market shift from green lumber to kiln dried lumber, and increased global competition. However, in 2005 Japan’s GDP, stock market, real estate, and consumer price index were up from the previous year indicating a strong economic recovery. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar has weakened against the Japanese yen and many economists predict that the U.S. Dollar will continue to decline against the yen due to historically high U.S. fiscal and trade deficits. This will give Japanese companies more purchasing power for U.S. forest products. In addition to economic changes, Japan’s demographics are changing rapidly. In the first half of 2005, Japan’s net population decreased and the population will continue to decline to the 1960’s level of 100 million by 2050. While Japan’s general population is decreasing, the percentage of population over 65 is growing rapidly as the baby boomers reach retirement age. According to a survey published in the Nikkei Weekly Newspaper, one area baby boomers expect to spend money on when they retire is their house. The total size of Japan’s remodel market was 7.0 trillion yen (US$ 60.3 billion) in 2003. The remodel market increased in 2003 and is predicted to increase as more baby boomers retire. As explained above, the Japanese market has shifted from green lumber to kiln dried lumber. Alaska has more than doubled their kiln dry capacity since the late 1990’s and this opens up Japan’s kiln dried lumber market. Additionally, the Ketchikan Wood Technology Center has established Alaska-specific lumber grade marks to differentiate Alaska timber species’ unique characteristics. The Japanese market has always valued quality and there is now an opportunity to communicate Alaska lumber quality by promoting these new grade marks in Japan. The results of this research suggest that many niche markets exist for ...
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