Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a lowlying delta-the Netherlands as an example

• Published in: Climatic Change
• Main Authors: Katsman, C.A., Sterl, A., Beersma, H.W., van den Brink, H.W., Church, J.A., Hazeleger, W., Kopp, R.E., Kroon, D., Kwadijk, J., Lammersen, R., Lowe, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plag, H.P., Ridley, J., von Storch, H., Vaughan, D.G., Vellinga, P., Vermeersen, L.L.A., Wal, R.S.W., Weise, R.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2011
• Subjects: acceleration; antarctic peninsula; climate-change; coastal management; flood control; greenland ice-sheet; last interglacial period; mass-balance; northeast atlantic; pine island glacier; sea level fluctuations; thermohaline circulation; west antarctica; hoogwaterbeheersing; kustbeheer; zeespiegelschommelingen; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; West Antarctica; Greenland; Pine Island Glacier; Antarc*; Antarctica; glacier; Ice Sheet; Northeast Atlantic; Pine Island
• Online Access: https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/exploring-high-end-scenarios-for-local-sea-level-rise-to-develop-; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.