Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a lowlying delta-the Netherlands as an example

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s floo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic Change
Main Authors: Katsman, C.A., Sterl, A., Beersma, H.W., van den Brink, H.W., Church, J.A., Hazeleger, W., Kopp, R.E., Kroon, D., Kwadijk, J., Lammersen, R., Lowe, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plag, H.P., Ridley, J., von Storch, H., Vaughan, D.G., Vellinga, P., Vermeersen, L.L.A., Wal, R.S.W., Weise, R.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2011
Subjects:
acceleration
antarctic peninsula
climate-change
coastal management
flood control
greenland ice-sheet
last interglacial period
mass-balance
northeast atlantic
pine island glacier
sea level fluctuations
thermohaline circulation
west antarctica
hoogwaterbeheersing
kustbeheer
zeespiegelschommelingen
Antarctic
Antarctic Peninsula
West Antarctica
Greenland
Pine Island Glacier
Antarc*
Antarctica
glacier
Ice Sheet
Northeast Atlantic
Pine Island
Online Access:https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/exploring-high-end-scenarios-for-local-sea-level-rise-to-develop-
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5
Description
Summary:Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

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