Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: van Westen, René, Dijkstra, Henk, Bloemendaal, Nadia
Other Authors: Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Physical Oceanography
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2023
Subjects:
AMOC weakening
Climate change
High-resolution modelling
Tropical cyclones
Atmospheric Science
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/430072
Description
Summary:Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

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