Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections

• Main Authors: van de Wal, R. S.W., Zhang, X., Minobe, S., Jevrejeva, S., Riva, R. E.M., Little, C., Richter, K., Palmer, M. D.
• Other Authors: Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Seismology, Sub AW Geofysica 2e geldstroom, Geochemistry, Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Coastal sea level; Uncertainties; Geophysics; Geochemistry and Petrology; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/387787

Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.