| Summary: | The cargo volumes of the Northern Sea Route have seen great increases in the past 10–15 years. With the increasing shipping traffic also the negative effects that the traffic has on the Arctic environment are on the increase. Some of these effects include increased CO2 and black carbon emissions, amplified risks for Arctic ecosystems and species, oil spills, and various negative effects on local communities. The effects of black carbon falling on snow and ice are especially devastating, as it can lower the surface albedo dramatically, creating a positive feedback loop which leads to more and more ice and snow melting in the long run. The main research objective of the thesis is to analyse how the potential cargo throughput of the Northern Sea Route is going to evolve until 2050. Additionally, the Arctic environment will be analysed from climatic, environmental, and shipping market point of views. As for the research and modelling methodology, the modelling and forecasting will be done utilizing a capacity model. The cargo capacity of the commercial ice classed cargo vessels as well as the capacity provided by icebreaker support will be modelled separately, with some parameters shared, and some unique to each model. The data is gathered from different databases and sources, and for the sea ice data two CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1 and NorESM2-MM) are used, both utilizing the SSP370 climate scenario. Both models are operated on a monthly basis, and the timescale of the modelling is until 2050. The results have a lot of yearly variation, and the general level of cargo capacity is very different depending on which climate model is used. For CNRM-ESM2-1, the yearly capacity ranges mostly between 350 and 500 million tonnes, with no clear long-term trend in the capacity. With NorESM2-MM the predicted capacity is much lower, ranging between 50 and 150 million tonnes, with the capacity steadily increasing over time. All of the increase in capacity comes from the icebreakers and not the commercial ice classed cargo vessels, ...
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