| Summary: | The papers 1, 2, 3 and 4 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 1: Naseri, M., Barabady, J.: «On RAM performance of petroleum exploration and exploitation and production facilities operating in the Barents Sea. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management 2016. Paper 2: Naseri, M., Barabady, J.: “System-reliability analysis by use of Gaussian Fuzzy Fault Tree: application in Arctic oil and gas facilities”. SPE Oil and Gas Facilities 2015, 4(3):1-11. Paper 3: Naseri, M., Barabady, J.: “Developing an expert-based model for reliability analysis of Arctic oil and gas processing facilities”. Available in Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering 2016, 138(5). Paper 4: Naseri, M., Barabady, J.: «An expert-based approach to production performance analysis of oil and gas facilities considering time-independent Arctic operating conditions”. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management 2015, 7(1):99-113. The Arctic offshore has a sensitive environment and is associated with a range of harsh operating conditions with considerable year-round variations. Such conditions can adversely affect the reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) of oil and gas (O&G) production facilities in different ways. One of the main challenges in RAM analysis of Arctic offshore O&G facilities is the lack of adequate historical data due to the comparatively limited experience of the O&G industry. The aim of this research is to identify and discuss the key elements of Arctic operating conditions and their effects on RAM performance of O&G production facilities and to develop expert-based models for RAM performance analysis of such facilities operating in the Arctic environment. At the first step, a detailed literature review was conducted to identify different elements of the Arctic offshore environment and their potential impact on RAM performance of O&G production facilities. Thereafter, expert-based models are developed to analyse the RAM performance of O&G production facilities under such effects. The issue of lack of adequate historical data is tackled integrating the data elicited from experts with the historical data obtained from O&G operations and activities in normal-climate regions. In real practice, however, Arctic operating conditions such as weather elements vary on a daily basis. In this regard, accelerated failure time models are adapted to build an availability model capable of reflecting upon such a time-dependency of environmental conditions. Moreover, uncertainties involved in weather conditions are analysed by the integration of time-series approaches in the developed plant availability model. The results of this study illustrate that harsh Arctic operating conditions adversely affect the RAM performance of O&G production facilities, and thus their production levels. It is also shown that the expert-based techniques are useful and powerful tools for RAM modelling of Arctic offshore facilities.
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