| Summary: | Timely delivery of the required goods plays an important role in meeting the availability and reducing the downtime of Markets. Salmon transport logistics is affected in complex ways while operating in the Arctic, since the area is sparsely populated and has insufficient infrastructure. It is also greatly affected by the distinctive operational environment of the region, such as cold temperature, varying forms of ice, blizzards, heavy fog, etc. Therefore, in order to have an effective transport and logistics plan, the effect of all influencing factors, called covariates, on the transportation of the spare parts need to be identified, modelled and quantified using an appropriate dynamic model. The traditional models, however, lack the comprehensive integration of the effect of covariates on the transportation modes. The purpose of this thesis is to introduce the concept of a dynamic model for transportation in Arctic conditions by considering time to delivery as the main attribute. The model continuously updates the prior probabilities according to the most recent time to delivery estimations. The application of the model is illustrated using a case study.
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