The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 year...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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John Wiley & Sons Ltd
2020
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
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ftunivtroemsoe:oai:munin.uit.no:10037/20175 2023-05-15T14:24:53+02:00 The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. 2020-11-24 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 eng eng John Wiley & Sons Ltd Global Change Biology info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/KLIMAFORSK/267613/Norway/Trapped in a cold-adapted body: the causes and consequences of phenotypic change in a rapidly warming Arctic// FRIDAID 1860727 doi:10.1111/gcb.15458 1354-1013 1365-2486 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175 openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed publishedVersion 2020 ftunivtroemsoe https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 2021-06-25T17:57:51Z Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual‐based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six‐week delay in snow‐onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter‐onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive Arctic Svalbard Global Change Biology 27 5 993 1002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Tromsø: Munin Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivtroemsoe |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
topic_facet |
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 |
description |
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual‐based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six‐week delay in snow‐onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter‐onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
author_facet |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
author_sort |
Loe, Leif Egil |
title |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_short |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_fullStr |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full_unstemmed |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_sort |
neglected season: warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in arctic reindeer |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
op_relation |
Global Change Biology info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/KLIMAFORSK/267613/Norway/Trapped in a cold-adapted body: the causes and consequences of phenotypic change in a rapidly warming Arctic// FRIDAID 1860727 doi:10.1111/gcb.15458 1354-1013 1365-2486 https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175 |
op_rights |
openAccess Copyright 2020 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
993 |
op_container_end_page |
1002 |
_version_ |
1766297328851877888 |