The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 year...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global Change Biology
Main Authors: Loe, Leif Egil, Liston, Glen E., Pigeon, Gabriel, Barker, Kristin, Horvitz, Nir, Stien, Audun, Forchhammer, Mads C., Getz, Wayne M., Irvine, Robert Justin, Lee, Aline Magdalena, Movik, Lars K., Mysterud, Atle, Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik, Reinking, Adele K., Ropstad, Erik, Trondrud, Liv Monica, Tveraa, Torkild, Veiberg, Vebjørn, Hansen, Brage Bremset, Albon, Steve D.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: John Wiley & Sons Ltd 2020
Subjects:
VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488
VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488
Arctic
Svalbard
Climate change
svalbard reindeer
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10037/20175
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458
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Summary:Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die‐offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual‐based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six‐week delay in snow‐onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter‐onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.

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