An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline

There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Marine Pollution Bulletin
Main Authors: Arzaghi, E, Abbassi, R, Garaniya, V, Binns, J, Khan, F
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd 2018
Subjects:
Engineering
Environmental Engineering
Environmental Engineering Modelling
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30301010
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/128064
Description
Summary:There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC 95% ) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC 5% ) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.

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