Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Atmosphere-Ocean
Main Authors: Zhai, L, Greenan, BJW, Hunter, J, James, TS, Han, G, MacAuley, P, Henton, JA
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Canadian Meteorological Oceanographic Soc 2015
Subjects:
Earth Sciences
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate Change Processes
Canada
Newfoundland
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2015.1106401
http://ecite.utas.edu.au/109724
Description
Summary:Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 19952100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5 m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1 m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.

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