| Summary: | Communicating complex scientific concepts and information to informed non-academics, such as managers and policy-makers, is difficult. This problem is exacerbated by recent exponential growth of the literature. How are informed general audiences to make sense of this information, especially when study results are contradictory and rich in unfamiliar statistics? Meta-analysis (i.e., analysis of analyses) is a powerful scientific approach used to synthesize the literature and offers promise as a tool for communicating complexity to informed lay-audiences. As an example, we conducted a meta-analysis of the literature on potential effects of global warming on upwelling marine ecosystems (Bakun’s 1990 upwelling intensification hypotheses (hereafter BH). The BH is complex, involving atmospheric science and physical and biological oceanography, yet is critical to society as upwelling ecosystems contribute disproportionately to the world’s wild capture fisheries; moreover, ocean acidification and de-oxygenation in these systems are dependent on upwelling. While the BH provides a step-by-step mechanism for how anthropogenic global warming could influence upwelling (see Rykaczewski S6), our meta-analysis focused on the result of the hypothesized mechanism, i.e., increasing wind fields. We synthesized results from 22 studies published between 1990 and 2012, representing analyses of 198 time series of observed and estimated wind. Using this meta-database, we investigated whether results were consistent or inconsistent with BH and whether results varied by season, data type (observed or modeled wind fields), study duration, or latitude. This meta-analysis suggests recent upwelling-favorable wind intensification in 3 of 5 of the world’s eastern boundary current regions over the past half century.
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