Multiple effects of ice load changes and associated stress change on magmatic systems

• Main Authors: Sigmundsson, F., Albino, F., Schmidt, P., Lund, B., Pinel, Virginie, Hooper, A., Pagli, C.
• Other Authors: Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland, University of Iceland Reykjavik -University of Iceland Reykjavik, Department of Earth Sciences Uppsala, Uppsala University, Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR219-PRES Université de Grenoble-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, McGuire, W. J. & Maslin, M. A, Institute of Earth Science, Reykjavik
• Format: Book Part
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2013
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Katla; Ice cap; Iceland
• Online Access: https://ird.hal.science/ird-00840833; https://ird.hal.science/ird-00840833/document; https://ird.hal.science/ird-00840833/file/SigmundssonEtal_Text.pdf

Ice retreat on volcanoes reduces pressure at the surface of the Earth and induces stress changes in magmatic systems. The consequences can include increased generation of magma at depth, increased magma capture in the crust, and modification of failure conditions of magma chambers. We review the methodology to evaluate each of these effects, and consider the influence of ongoing ice retreat on volcanoes at the Mid-Atlantic divergent plate boundary in Iceland. Evaluation of each of these effects requires a series of assumptions regarding the rheology of the crust and mantle, and the nature of magmatic systems, contributing to relatively large uncertainty in response of a magmatic system to climate warming and associated ice retreat. Pressure release melting due to ice cap retreat in Iceland may at present times generate a similar amount of magma as plate tectonic processes; larger than realized previously. However, new modelling shows that part of this magma may be captured in the crust, rather than being erupted. Gradual retreat of ice caps do steadily modify failure conditions at magma chambers, which is highly dependent on their geometry and depth, as well as the details of ice load variations. A model is presented where long-term ice retreat at Katla volcano decreases the likelihood of eruption, as more magma is needed in the magma chamber to cause failure than in the absence of the ice retreat.