Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat

• Published in: Nature
• Main Authors: Bosson, J., Huss, M., Cauvy-Fraunié, S., Clément, J., Costes, G., Fischer, M., Poulenard, Jérôme, Arthaud, F.
• Other Authors: Asters, Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie, Annecy, France (Asters), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland, RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre Alpin de Recherche sur les Réseaux Trophiques et Ecosystèmes Limniques (CARRTEL), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Asters Conservatoire des Espaces Naturels de Haute-Savoie, Environnements, Dynamiques et Territoires de Montagne (EDYTEM), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ice&Life received financial support from WWF France and Mirova Foundation, the Fondation Université Savoie Mont Blanc, the DIPEE Grenoble-Chambery and the FREE-Alpes Federation (FR no. 2001-CNRS), la Banque des Territoires, the Fondation Eau Neige et Glace, Millet Mountain Group, Quechua, Patagonia, Picture, Crédit Agricole des Savoie, Swen Capital Partners, Imepsa and the Kilian Jornet Foundation.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology; [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Ecosystems; Antarctic; Greenland; The Antarctic; Antarc*; glacier
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04221856; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06302-2

International audience Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences1,2,3,4,5,6. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover7,8. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000 km2) to that of Finland (339,000 ± 99,000 km2). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22 ± 8% to 51 ± 15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation9 and the Global Biodiversity Framework10, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.