How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk?
Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) extend many hazards associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) to the mid-latitudes. Despite recent high-impact cases affecting Europe such as Ophelia, little research has been done to characterize the risk of PTCs. Here we compare the climatologies and intensity distribut...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92869/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/92869/9/2020GL089853.pdf |
| Summary: | Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) extend many hazards associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) to the mid-latitudes. Despite recent high-impact cases affecting Europe such as Ophelia, little research has been done to characterize the risk of PTCs. Here we compare the climatologies and intensity distributions of mid-latitude cyclones (MLCs) and PTCs in the North Atlantic and Europe by tracking cyclones in the ERA5 reanalysis. Considering hurricane-season cyclones impacting Northern Europe, PTCs show a significantly higher mean maximum intensity than MLCs, but make only a small contribution to total windstorm risk. Our results show that a disproportionately large fraction of high-intensity cyclones impacting Europe during hurricane season are PTCs. The fraction of PTCs impacting N Europe with storm-force (>25ms-1) winds is approximately ten times higher than for MLCs. Less than 1% of cyclones impacting Northern Europe are identified to be PTCs. This rises to 8.8% when considering cyclones which impact with storm-force winds. |
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