Impact of ocean heat transport on sea ice captured by a simple energy balance model
Future projections of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice suffer from uncertainties largely associated with inter-model spread. Ocean heat transport has been hypothesised as a source of this uncertainty, based on correlations with sea ice extent across climate models. However, a physical explanation of wha...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Nature
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/117331/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/117331/8/117331%20VoR.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/117331/1/aylmer_etal_2024.pdf |
| Summary: | Future projections of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice suffer from uncertainties largely associated with inter-model spread. Ocean heat transport has been hypothesised as a source of this uncertainty, based on correlations with sea ice extent across climate models. However, a physical explanation of what sets the sea ice sensitivity to ocean heat transport remains to be uncovered. Here, we derive a simple equation using an idealised energy-balance model that captures the emergent relationship between ocean heat transport and sea ice in climate models. Inter-model spread of Arctic sea ice loss depends strongly on the spread in ocean heat transport, with a sensitivity set by compensation of atmospheric heat transport and radiative feedbacks. Southern Ocean heat transport exhibits a comparatively weak relationship with Antarctic sea ice and plays a passive role secondary to atmospheric heat transport. Our results suggest that addressing ocean model biases will substantially reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice. |
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