| Summary: | Near-record warmth over much of the United States during March 2007 promoted early growth of crops and vegetation. A widespread arctic air outbreak followed in early April, resulting in extensive agricultural losses over the southeastern U.S. This “false spring” event also resulted in widespread damage to newly grown tissues of native deciduous forest species, shown by previous researchers to have affected the terrestrial carbon cycle. The current study reconstructed the historical occurrence of false springs for the southeastern U.S. (32–39 °N; 75–98 °W) from 1901–2007 using daily maximum and minimum temperature records from 176 stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network database, and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. A false spring index examined the relative timing of the start of the growing season (SGS), or leaf-out, to the timing of a potentially damaging last hard freeze (≤ -2.2 °C). SGS was modeled for the domain by combining EVI data with ground-based temperature “degree-day” calculations refl ecting the rate of springtime warming. No significant area-wide, long-term SGS trend was found (0.2 days later/decade; p = 0.3). However, the timing of the last hard freeze did occur significantly later (>1 day/decade; p < 0.05) over a contiguous region stretching from Mississippi eastward to the Carolinas. The index also found that false spring risk increased over the same area, although a domain-averaged trend showed no change since 1901. These results illustrate the complexity of observed climate change over the last century. In a generally warming world, the character of temperature changes in some regions does not result in decreasing risk of false spring, and may in fact pose increased risk if occurring during vulnerable plant growth stages.
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