Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch
International audience Evidence of climate-change-drivenshifts in plant and animal phenology haveraised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time,resultingin declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonalityat high latitude...
Published in: | Ecology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01509789 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1749 |
Summary: | International audience Evidence of climate-change-drivenshifts in plant and animal phenology haveraised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time,resultingin declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonalityat high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expectAntarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-drivenphenological mismatcheswith their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological changein Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-icephenology, andAdélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, whilea temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditionssets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despiteprevious work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology areapparentacross the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trendin the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannualvariability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driventrends, as observed inother systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-drivenphenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system |
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