Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Eyring, V., Stevenson, D. S., Lauer, A., Dentener, F. J., Butler, T., Collins, W. J., Ellingsen, K., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Isaksen, I.S.A., Lawrence, M. G., Richter, A., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., Laval-Szopa, Sophie, van Noije, T. P. C., Wild, O.
• Other Authors: DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR), University of Edinburgh, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre Ispra (JRC), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Bremen, Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center (GEST), University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2007
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Indian; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00328008; https://hal.science/hal-00328008v2/document; https://hal.science/hal-00328008v2/file/acp-7-757-2007.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/ACP-7-757-2007

International audience The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a pre-defined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions (year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 (termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic emissions follow the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25°–60° N) oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are capable to reproduce ozone (O 3 ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x =NO+NO 2 ) reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) in the marine boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO 2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping to annual mean near-surface O 3 are found over the North Atlantic (5–6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric O 3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000 and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O 3 forcings due to shipping are 9.8±2.0 mW/m 2 in 2000 and 13.6±2.3 mW/m 2 in 2030. Whilst increasing O 3 , ship NO x simultaneously enhances hydroxyl radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a negative radiative forcing. ...