Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming on Pan-Arctic River Discharge Into the Hudson Bay Complex Through 2070
Discharge projections into the Hudson Bay Complex to 2070 are investigated for global mean temperature warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. Median precipitation increases from 1986–2005, ranging from 2% during summer to 19% during winter, are projected to increase discharge in all seasons except summer...
| Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1993/34874 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079147 |
| Summary: | Discharge projections into the Hudson Bay Complex to 2070 are investigated for global mean temperature warming levels of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. Median precipitation increases from 1986–2005, ranging from 2% during summer to 19% during winter, are projected to increase discharge in all seasons except summer. The rise in discharge is greatest furthest north, into Foxe Basin, Ungava Bay, and Hudson Strait, exceeding 10% above historical annual means. A 2.0 °C warming results in higher discharge than 1.5 °C warming owing to greater precipitation (e.g., 6.5% greater spring discharge increase); however, summer discharge for 2.0 °C warming is lower due to enhanced evaporation and lower precipitation increase from historical (4.0% lower summer discharge increase). Extreme daily high flows are projected to be greater than historical, more so for 2.0 °C warming than 1.5 °C warming, and this is greatest in the eastern and northern regions. These projections suggest continued increasing river discharge into pan-Arctic coastal oceans. Manitoba Hydro and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada through the BaySys project |
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