Absence of an internal multidecadal oscillation in the North Atlantic has consequences for anticipating the future of marine ecosystems

• Published in: Climate Research
• Main Authors: Beaugrand, Gregory, Faillettaz, R, Kirby, R. R.
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Nord ), Unité Sciences et Technologies Halieutiques (STH), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), The Secchi Disk Foundation
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04290771; https://hal.science/hal-04290771/document; https://hal.science/hal-04290771/file/PREPRINT%20BEAUGRAND%20ET%20AL%202021%20CR.pdf; https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01676

International audience The North Atlantic marine ecosystem has been expected to adjust imminently to a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Recent results suggest, however, that the AMO is not a regular internal source of variability, but has been driven by both volcanism and sulphate aerosol emissions that have influenced temperature negatively, and a period of greenhouse gas accumulation causing temperatures to be higher than normal. The demise of the AMO removes the expected and imminent cyclical change from the current warm phase to a negative cool phase in the North Atlantic. Here, we discuss the implications of this new finding for the near-future of North Atlantic marine ecosystems in a context of rapid climate warming.