Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean

• Published in: Nature Climate Change
• Main Authors: Beaugrand, G., Conversi, A., Atkinson, A., Cloern, J., Chiba, S., Fonda-Umani, S., Kirby, R. R., Greene, C. H., Goberville, E., Otto, S. A., Reid, P. C., Stemmann, L., Edwards, M.
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Nord ), Istituto di Scienze Marine Bologna (ISMAR), Istituto di Science Marine (ISMAR ), National Research Council of Italy, Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), United States Geological Survey Reston (USGS), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Università degli studi di Trieste = University of Trieste, The Secchi Disk Foundation, Cornell University New York, Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), University of Hamburg, Marine Biological Association, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de la Mer de Villefranche (IMEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2019
• Subjects: Climate-change ecology; Climate-change impacts; Ecosystem ecology; Marine biology; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Climate change; Zooplankton
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02189417; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02189417/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02189417/file/ms_Beaugrand_et_al_Nature_revised_final.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1

International audience Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.