| Summary: | The risk of a major oil spill in the Arctic has become a matter of global concern, since climate change is extending the ice-free period and bringing more shipping to the area. The Arctic is already under great pressure from climate change, and an oil spill in this unique and sensitive environment could be a catastrophe for its biota. Fortunately, no major oil spill has happened in the true Arctic yet, but as the probability of one is increasing, we need to prepare for the potential consequences. Understanding the likely impacts of Arctic oil spills could greatly benefit conservation of the area as, for example, spatially and temporally varying risk could be taken into account when selecting shipping routes. Hence, comprehensive knowledge about the impacts of oil spills on Arctic ecosystems is needed. So far, however, knowledge about the likely impacts of oil on Arctic biota is scarce and insufficient for comprehensive risk assessment. The thesis constructs and applies a probabilistic framework for assessing the environmental risk oil spills pose for marine biota in the data-poor Arctic. The work consists of the summary and four research papers. Paper I brings together the current understanding about Arctic oil spills and their environmental impacts, and conceptualizes that knowledge as a probability-based framework that can guide further risk assessment. It further identifies the key Arctic marine functional groups that environmental risk assessment should focus on. Paper II carries out an expert elicitation to quantify the acute oil spill -induced mortality of adult and offspring individuals belonging to each functional group. Paper III develops a vulnerability index describing the acute mortality and the longer-term recovery potential of the functional groups based on scientific and grey literature. Paper IV uses the information collected in papers I–III and combines it with estimates of oil spreading and species distributions to compare the spatiotemporally varying mortality risk for polar bears, ringed ...
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