Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters

This is the final version. Available from AGU via the DOI in this record Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Scaife, AA, Arribas, A, Blockley, E, Brookshaw, A, Clark, RT, Dunstone, N, Eade, R, Fereday, D, Folland, CK, Gordon, M, Hermanson, L, Knight, JR, Lea, DJ, MacLachlan, C, Maidens, A, Martin, M, Peterson, AK, Smith, D, Vellinga, M, Wallace, E, Waters, J, Williams, A
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) / Wiley 2014
Subjects:
signal‐to‐noise ratio
prediction
regional climate
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34601
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637
Description
Summary:This is the final version. Available from AGU via the DOI in this record Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. Key Points The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possible This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN).

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