Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, lat...
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Institute of Mathematical Statistics
2014
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
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ftunivexeter:oai:ore.exeter.ac.uk:10871/17349 2023-05-15T17:31:28+02:00 Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A.T. 2014 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 en eng Institute of Mathematical Statistics http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1419001741 Vol. 8 (4), pp. 2223 - 2246 doi:10.1214/14-AOAS766 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 1932-6157 1941-7330 Annals of Applied Statistics Article 2014 ftunivexeter https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 2022-11-20T21:31:10Z A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) The Annals of Applied Statistics 8 4 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of Exeter: Open Research Exeter (ORE) |
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ftunivexeter |
language |
English |
description |
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A.T. |
spellingShingle |
Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A.T. Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
author_facet |
Economou, Theodoros Stephenson, David B. Ferro, Christopher A.T. |
author_sort |
Economou, Theodoros |
title |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms |
publisher |
Institute of Mathematical Statistics |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1419001741 Vol. 8 (4), pp. 2223 - 2246 doi:10.1214/14-AOAS766 http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 1932-6157 1941-7330 Annals of Applied Statistics |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
container_title |
The Annals of Applied Statistics |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766129063091503104 |