Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, lat...
Published in: | The Annals of Applied Statistics |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Institute of Mathematical Statistics
2014
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17349 https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS766 |
Summary: | A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive. |
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